Grading the 2016 Heisman Calculator

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Two-time reigning Champion!

For the second consecutive year, HeismanWatch.com foretells the Heisman Trophy outcome with greater accuracy than ESPN’s panel of experts and USATODAY’s Gannett Heisman [voter] survey.

The Heisman Calculator is a one-of-a-kind regression model that processes simulated Heisman votes. By using player and voter data from years past, we can identify statistical influencers that drive Heisman votes.

Summary:  Regression models can struggle when determining a coefficient ceiling so we weren’t all too disappointed that the Heisman Calculator didn’t calculate a +2100 vote/point outcome for Lamar Jackson. With that said, the marginal difference between Jackson and Deshaun Watson were virtually identical, and to us, that’s whats most important. We specifically designed the calculator to tell us how many vote/points separate candidate-to-candidate. That is exactly what it did and we’re very excited about that.  We also listed out the top 6 finishers in perfect sequential order.

#CandidatesFinal ResultsHeisman CalculatorESPNUSA Today
Deshaun Watson2nd2nd2nd2nd
Lamar Jackson1st1st1st1st
Baker Mayfield3rd3rd4th3rd
Dede Westbrook4th4th3rd--
Jabrill Peppers5th5th--6th
Jake Browning6th6th6th4th

#PublicationLamar JacksonDeshaun WatsonBaker MayfieldDede WestbrookJabrill PepersJake Browning
Heisman Calculator1,6461,160522490488275
Final Results2,1441,524361209208188

How the Heisman Calculator guessed it right, what we learned, and an early look at 2017. All this and more in this week’s Heisman Watch Podcast.

Heisman Watch

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