Meat Lock Picks Week 12

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Week 12…Meat Locks: I’m back with a vengeance

-Keith Lofton

Took a week off last week y’all…just didn’t have my game face on and was on football overload. Wanted to kick back and observe with no pressure. I can tell you this…I would have picked Notre Dame to beat Miami but the Canes are trying to tell me something. I would have picked Wisconsin, I would have picked Auburn to cover BUT lose and I would have picked Clemson to get it done (crazy cover/bad beat BTW…if you haven’t seen it, go check out the highlights). That said, I’m back and ready to lock in some meaty meat locks that are sure to get us riding high again. I’m on a flight to Vegas and I plan to bet on every one of these games at the sportsbook along with a parlay on all of them combined. It’s on baby! Let’s get to it.

Friday Night Pot Roast – Middle Tennessee St (-3) @ Western Kentucky

This is a tough one but the other Friday games are less appealing to me. MTSU will travel north after 2 straight wins while WKU has lost 3 straight. That said, WKU has played against some tough opponents while the Blue Raiders were in the soft spot of their schedule. I like Western Kentucky to bounce back with an outright win in front of their home crowd and waive those red rally towels on top of the hill! Hilltoppers win in a squeaker 34-31.

Another pre Saturday pick…Tulsa at #23 USF (-22.5)

Tulsa is a program that is struggling and USF is on the rise. It feels like just 2 seasons ago that was a flip flopped dialogue. Well, USF hasn’t been great lately but I see a late run in them and a couple statement wins to get them into a more competitive post season bowl. USF’s rush defense has been one of their strengths all year while the only thing Tulsa has consistently been able to do all year is run. I see USF bottling that up a bit and holding serve at home. Look for the home team to ball out in this one. Give me the Bulls 40-17…yikes, that’s a close cover!

ULM @ #6 Auburn (-37)

Auburn…wow! What can I say other than War Eagle after last weeks performance against the Dawgs. They dominated in all 3 phases especially up front with their O-line and D-line. I have no clue how ULM is going to deal with the big boys like Auburn rolls out. The Tigers have dropped 40+ in 6 of their last 7 and they’re playing their best ball right now. This game sandwiched between two potential games against the #1 team in the country and a date for the Iron Bowl would be a trap game if it were a conference game or against a team with a winning record but it’s not. I see this game over by halftime. Auburn 48 – Louisiana Monroe 6

SMU @ #21 Memphis (-13)

I just can’t get off the Memphis train right now. They’ve been covering games and winning people money. They’re home after a week off and ready to get back after it with that high octane offense. I expect a 21+ victory here and some more duckets in the bank. Give me the Tigers 49 -24! What’s the over?

 

Arizona @ Oregon (-1)

My thoughts here is that the only way Oregon wins this game is if the elements rear their ugly head and make this a nasty game. Khalil Tate is a frontrunner for the 2018 Heisman and will continue to shine at Autzen on Saturday. Oregon’s defense hasn’t had a lot of resistance this season and this should continue meanwhile, Arizona has had their moments against offenses that aren’t at the top of the food chain. I like Arizona to Bear Down and win this one outright and stay on the radar for some good postseason play. Give me the Wildcats on the road 38-31.

#12 TCU (-7) at Texas Tech

Texas Tech has as good of an offense as any you’ll find in the country but that defense leaves so much to want and need if you root for the Red Raiders. Tech has allowed 300 yards per game through the air this season so Kenny “Trill” Hill should have a big game this weekend. On the other side of the ball, they can score with anyone in the country…well except for TCU. TCU is allowing 16 points per game in the Big 12! How is that even possible? Before they took a beating from Oklahoma they had allowed 27 total points in their last 4. What? I honestly can’t understand how you do that in the Big 12 with these potent offenses but they’ve been able to do it and win games. Give me the Horned Frogs on the road minus the P’s. TCU 38 – Texas Tech 28.

Virginia @ #3 Miami (-19.5)

The Canes are back? After two really huge home wins they have one more home game, this time against Virginia, who is a team that after starting off hot has cooled significantly. As long as Miami keeps their edge and rocks that home field advantage, that turnover chain should be in focus this weekend. The Canes have force 24 turnovers this season (4th best in the nation) and a +15 turnover margin (2nd in the nation) and these kids are craving that chain. It’s brought the swagger and the “U” mentality back to Miami’s football program. With UVA coming to town I don’t know if they can stop the momentum. Look for at least 2 more turnovers this weekend caused by Category 4 Hurricanes and a raucous crowd and another ho hum road performance by Virginia. Miami 37 – Virginia 17. Eesh, another close cover!

Well there are my picks for the week…in case you’re wondering I also like Wisconsin to cover at home against Michigan (-7.5), VA Tech -15.5 at home against Pitt, Wyoming +1 at home against Fresno and #19 NC St to take care of business on the road at Wake Forest…The Wolfpack are dogs here (+1.5) and I’m taking an outright win! Penn St and Georgia also looking for big bounce back wins both at home against less than average teams in Kentucky and Nebraska. The lines might be too big here but they’re both worth keeping an eyeball on. Not a ton of marquee games this week but this is the type of week when a lot of surprises, upsets and weird things start happening so look to get weird on your college football Saturday.

 

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