SPOILER ALERT: The 2017 Heisman Trophy Results

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The Heisman Calculator is a one-of-a-kind regression model that processes simulated Heisman votes. By using player and voter data from years past, we can identify statistical influencers that drive Heisman votes. For the second consecutive year, HeismanWatch.com foretells the Heisman Trophy outcome with greater accuracy than ESPN’s panel of experts and USATODAY’s Gannett Heisman [voter] survey.

SPOILER ALERT: I bet you didn’t see this one coming… Baker Mayfield will be your 2017 Heisman Trophy winner in rather convincing fashion. Not convincing to the degree of say, Marcus Mariota in 2014 (i.e. 2,534) but more so than a Lamar Jackson in 2016 (i.e. 2144). Our Calculator anticipates Oklahoma’s vaulted signal-caller sweeping each and every voting region.

Conventional thinking would favor Lamar Jackson over Bryce Love for second place. Reason number one, Love plays on the west coast. Reason number two, Jackson plays quarterback. Two very mute points when considering ‘true intrinsic value’ but when it comes to Heisman voting, profoundly influential. To be honest, we feel a little insecure listing Jackson at second. Our gut believes he’s in third place after Love, but were going to put our trust in ole faithful… The Heisman Calculator!

We know because only three candidates were invited to NYC, the remaining candidate field will be <300 point.  We expect to see a gridlock of players named in the long tail.  Two names appearing on our calculator and not named in the Gannett or ESPN list; JT Barrett and Mason Rudolph.  Just something to keep an eye on.

#Heisman CandidateTeamHeisman CalculatorGannett SurveyESPN
Lamar JacksonLouisville131216?
Saquon BarkleyPenn State3192?
Baker MayfieldOklahoma238558?
Bryce LoveStanford86834?
Rashaad PennySan Diego St.1565?
Jonathan TaylorWisconsin1193?

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